Draw odds by turn

How often you have drawn what you need by a given turn. Step the copy count to see what another copy actually buys you, and allow mulligans to see what re-rolling the hand is worth.

Format

Odds of drawing3of a card when38are in a99card libraryCards seen10turn 3Mulligans0keep 7

81.9%

at least 3 of those cards by turn 3 · 10 cards seen, 38 in a 99-card library

Gameplan · 75-85%

Allow a mulligan to see what re-rolling the hand buys you.

Compare

turn 3 selected

Probability bands

These are just general rules of thumb. You'll have to use your own judgement for your deck based on your gameplan and tolerance for variance.

90%+ Mana. Lands and colored sources. Missing it loses the game outright. Frank Karsten's benchmark.
75-85% Gameplan. Your engine or first real interaction window being online.
55-70% On curve. Where turn-three ramp usually lands. The failure is a turn behind, not dead.
Under 50% Bonus plays. Do not build a line that counts on this.

What this assumes

You mulligan every hand that misses and keep every hand that hits.
London mulligan: each new hand is a fresh seven off the full deck. Cards you bottom go under everything you draw, so they leave the sample.
The first mulligan is free, so you bottom one card fewer.
You draw on your first turn, so turn T is 7 + T cards: 8 on turn one.
Each line is one condition. Conditions multiply: a plan needing three separate 80% pieces is 51%, and nothing on this chart will tell you that.

Build a deck here and the analysis tab runs this against your actual list, with your own categories as the groups.

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