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Keepable hand odds
Every other calculator asks what you will have by turn N. This one is about the decision before turn one. Set what a keepable hand needs, and see how often you get one, how deep you should expect to go, and how much hand you have left when you get there.
Format
Library99Mulligans allowed3
42.0%
of fresh sevens keepBonus plays · under 50%
Mean mulligans1.38the long-run average
Median mulligans1what happens half the time
Where you stop
HandCardsChance
Dealt742.0%
Mulligan 1724.4%
Mulligan 2614.1%
Mulligan 358.2%
Never found within 3 mulligans11.3%
A keepable hand has
at least2of38in deck
at least1of10in deck
What this assumes
- The London mulligan deals a fresh seven off the full deck every time, so the odds of a keepable hand are the same on every re-roll. That is why the mean and median above are exact rather than estimated.
- The mean and the median are not the same number. The mean is the long-run average and the median is what happens half the time. The tail is long, so the mean sits above the median, and the gap widens as the keep rate falls.
- The mean and median assume you keep mulliganing until you find a hand. The distribution beside them is capped at the 3 mulligans you allowed.
- The requirements share no cards. A card filling two roles has to be counted in one of them.
- Nothing here charges you a penalty for a smaller hand. The cost of going deeper is the card count in the table, which is a fact rather than a weighting.
- This is a rule you set, not a judgement. A real keep weighs the whole hand, the format, and who is at the table.
Build a deck here and the analysis tab runs this against your actual list, with your own categories as the groups.
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