Land drop consistency

The odds of making every land drop through a given turn. Step the land count and watch which turn falls off the benchmark first: that is the turn the deck starts stumbling, and because a missed drop cannot be made up on your natural draw, it does not recover.

Format

Lands38in a99card library38% lands

This deck keeps up through turn 2 at 90%+. By turn 3 it is still on track 81.9% of the time, and the rest of the time it has already missed a drop and cannot get the turn back.

TurnSeenOdds

Turn 1898.3%

Turn 2992.5%

Turn 31081.9%

Turn 41167.6%

Turn 51251.9%

Turn 61337.2%

Turn 71425.0%

Turn 81515.8%

What this assumes

Each figure is the chance of making every drop up to that turn, not just that one. You see one new card a turn and need one more land, so a hand that falls behind never catches up: miss a drop and you have missed every drop after it too.
Extra draw is the only way back. It is the one thing that breaks the one-card-a-turn arithmetic above, and nothing here counts it.
Making the turn-T drop means holding at least T lands among the cards you have seen. No mulligans.
You draw on your first turn, so turn one is 8 cards.
Every land counts the same. A tapped land, a land that enters only under a condition, and an untapped dual are one land each here.
The line at 90%+ is the mana benchmark, not a rule.

Build a deck here and the analysis tab runs this against your actual list, with your own categories as the groups.

Go to my decks