Land drop consistency

The odds of making each land drop, turn by turn. Step the land count and watch which turn falls off the benchmark first: that is the turn the deck starts stumbling, and it moves faster than most people expect.

Format

Lands38in a99card library38% lands

Every drop through turn 2 clears 90%+. The turn-3 drop is 81.9%, which is where this mana base starts to stumble.

TurnSeenOdds

Turn 1898.3%

Turn 2992.5%

Turn 31081.9%

Turn 41167.6%

Turn 51251.9%

Turn 61337.2%

Turn 71425.0%

Turn 81515.8%

What this assumes

Making the turn-T drop means holding at least T lands among the cards you have seen. No mulligans.
You draw on your first turn, so turn one is 8 cards.
Every land counts the same. A tapped land, a land that enters only under a condition, and an untapped dual are one land each here.
Each turn is read on its own. This is not the chance of making every drop in a row, which is lower.
The line at 90%+ is the mana benchmark, not a rule.

Build a deck here and the analysis tab runs this against your actual list, with your own categories as the groups.

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